Phil Rodgers, the new columnist for the Cambridge Independent, shares his thoughts on what we might expect politically in our area this year.
Besides all the overlapping national and global troubles – rising fuel costs, living expenses, strikes, NHS struggles, the war in Ukraine, and of course climate change – Cambridge has its own ongoing challenges to deal with like housing shortages, growth issues, and especially transport problems that seem to be getting more pressing right now.
This year will also see some interesting elections: all seats up on East Cambridgeshire District Council, a third of the city council seats contested as usual, plus at least one by-election that might shake up power at the county council level.
Mayor Nik Johnson is set to return to lead the Combined Authority after his recent medical break. Meanwhile, the Greater Cambridge Partnership (GCP) is deciding what’s next for its transport plans. On top of all this, local governments are struggling under budget pressures worse than usual.
The big topic in Cambridge politics last year – and likely again this year – was definitely GCP’s plans around bus subsidies and congestion charging. The consultation wrapped up just before Christmas. Now officers have over 23,000 responses to go through before presenting their findings to the GCP board in June.
The GCP will then decide if they want to recommend going ahead with it to the county council who’ll make the final call. Honestly, it’s pretty unclear right now what will happen but basically there are three options – push forward with something close to what they proposed; scale it way back; or scrap it entirely.
If you lined up everyone in Greater Cambridge by how much they like these transport plans you’d find some people who feel really strongly both for and against them at either end of that line. But honestly what counts most politically is where folks stand in that middle ground-and my guess from early impressions is most people aren’t fans of these plans at all.
A lot of people usually don’t pay much attention to local politics but if you suddenly say “you’ve gotta pay £5 a day just for driving around your own city,” well that grabs their attention fast – and that has real political fallout too. In fact those plans played a big role in November’s Longstanton by-election where Conservatives campaigned hard on opposing it and managed to snatch one seat from Lib Dems despite their huge lead.
The election impact won’t stop there though – probably stronger outside city limits than inside them – since I can’t see Conservatives making many gains within city council based only on this issue; besides Sam Davies there doesn’t seem much organised opposition either way locally against these proposals so far anyway.
The clear divisions among Labour members here plus almost total quiet from Lib Dems online about it plus lukewarm feelings from Greens kind of tell their own story too-it’s tough seeing where enough political support would come from right now for these plans exactly as they stand despite officials being very keen on them themselves.
Might they drop these ideas altogether? I’d say unlikely but not impossible either really-people often say “status quo isn’t an option” about something or other but truthfully status quo always remains an option because it’s easier sometimes simply not changing anything at all.
A few past tries at putting congestion charges into place have ended stuck because they were deemed “too tricky.” If those currently running things face either dropping it or handing control back over completely wrapped up nicely for Conservatives though-you can bet they’d avoid giving control away!
The third route could be pushing forward with a smaller plan which still sets precedent for charging congestion fees eventually-maybe limiting times charged only during rush hours or shrinking zone boundaries just covering central parts while leaving places like hospital out-or offering discounts somehow-for locals or commuters coming outwards-or mixing some combination together maybe?
There have been whispers saying maybe this scheme got set high purposely so officials could later deliver less extreme changes-but I doubt that was really true anyway-even toned-down versions will still face plenty opposition since lots worry any start means gradual creeping expansions later down road.
Elections coming up here
While waiting around for results from GCP consultation efforts campaigning already should be picking up pace heading toward May local elections when one-third of city council seats get decided like usual here:
This chart shows last year’s election outcomes based on how big Labour’s lead was over whoever else challenged them:
Last year went pretty wellfor Cambridge Labour. They kept six safe seatsandwon four more “battleground” wards where Lib Demswere hopingto do better reducingthemtojust three narrowwinsin Queen Edith’s , Trumpington , and Market. Ward Abbeywent Greenbuttheyonlycame distant secondsin Coleridgeand Romsey. Conservatives only managedone quite far second placein Cherry Hinton.
Thisyear looks tougherfor Labour, butshouldstillbeacomfortablewin. They’ll hold Arbury , Cherry Hinton , Coleridge , King’s Hedges, Petersfield, and Romsey ; they’re hopingtocatch Lib Dem Cheney Payne incastle, butwillfacestrongdefensefrom Lib Demsin Market , Newnham, andboth Chestertons. Greens must defend Abbey now, buttakingotherwardsisunlikelyatthispoint.
Labours griponcouncilcontrol remainsverystrong, itwouldtakeama jor political shake-up-say, a new Labour government nationally-tochangethat.
Whatabout East Cambridgeshire?
Thingsaremoreuncertainthere, becauseallcouncilseatsareupforelection. Here’showit lookedlasttimearoundin2019:
Councillors serving East Cambs District Council. Graphby Phil Rodgers.
Mostwardsherehave twoseatsthoughsomehaveoneorthree. Thischartshows highestvotesforeachpartyperward.
In2019Lib Demsalmostgotcontrolfirsttimein20yearsbutendedwith13seatsvs15for Conservatives. Ofcourselotschangedsincethen-thatelectionhappenedamidpre-Brexit tensionswhen Lib Demssnappedsecondplacenationwideinthe European electionsweekslater.
Although Torieshaven’tdoneaswelllatelyinthepollsthey’reactuallynotfaroff May2019levels, andpreviouslydidmuchbetter. Here’showthings shiftedoveryears:
As you can see Independent rule faded long ago replaced mostly by party system except brief Lib Dem spell starting1999. T he changes innumberofseatscamefromboundary redrawings.
A new thing this ye aris voters need ID toparticipate expectedtoslightlyfavor Conservativesoverallbutwon’treally change muchlocally.
The Parliament fight
Local elections dates arefixed, butthenext General Election dateisupto Prime Ministeragainafter Fixed Term Parliaments Act repeal. A General Electionthisyearisveryunlikelythough polls maytriggerspringorfallvoteprobably nextyear. Possibledatecouldgoup till Janua ry25thoughnobodywants Christmas campaign. Sowe’ll seeparties gearingupcandidatechoices soonandstartingbig campaigns
Hereincambridge, the L ib Demscandidatealreadychoseniscity councillor Cheney Payne. Ihaven’t heard Daniel Zeichner isn’t standing againfor Labouralthoughhe’llbe72if Parliamentrunsfulltermsohemayretireforquieterlife.
Cambridge constituency seems safefor Labourwhile South Cambs looks closebetween Tory Anthony Browneand Lib Dem Pippa Heylings. East Cambsmore Toriesafe. New St Neots Mid Cambridgeshireseatlikely somewherebetweenthose two
A packed year ahead
C amb ridge politics definitely has al ot happening throug houtthe months. April m ay bring mo re b us service trouble if central gove rnment stops supporting subsidies. Post-pandemic retail changes loom large too wit h big redevelopments planned f or The Grafton & Beehive centres
Living cost concerns & homelessness remain urgent. C ambr idge still tops UK inequality charts though l ast full stats are fro m201616. Con tinuedgrowth may raise hot planning debates. Plus expect unexpected twists yet again. Lots going o n!
P hil Rodgers has called Ca mbr idge home since1984. He ’ s married w ith two daughters & works as software developer fo r local company. Re ad more via his blog & catch hi s columns every month i n C am bridg e Independ ent.
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